Industry Insights
Minibar and Loan Market Update from Bridge, December 2025
Rates are down but stabilizing, what 50 outlook reports say about 2026, and a red light, green light map of where hotel loans are getting done.
In this article
I’m the co-founder and CEO of Bridge, a direct lender and marketplace for hotel loans. Before founding Bridge, I spent 10+ years at Citi in capital markets.
This is month 3 of our minibar and loan market update. Before we start – thanks for reading this year and happy holidays!
TLDR: What’s Moving in the Loan Market
- Rates are down but now stabilizing
- 2025 – 2026 Key Observations
- Red Light – Green Light – Market overview chart
Chart of the Month
This is a Loan Market Update newsletter so its important for us to outline Rates!
Here’s where we have been and where we are. In the dark blue – we’ve also shown the difference over a 18 month construction for an Interest Only $15 million loan…
Is it worth waiting to get a project started for 11 months for $34,125?
Key Observations
We’re in December, so most of you are probably beginning to see a lot of “What to expect in 2026” we’ve read over 50 of these reports and here our top observations:
1. Capital Continues to be the top concern for CRE Leaders
- Key concerns for CRE leaders in 2026 based on a recent survey
- Top 3 risks in 2026 are Capital Related
1) Availability
2) Interest Rates
3) Cost of Capital - Deloitte CRE Outlook Survey
2. Projected Interest Rates for 2026
- While markets are pricing short-term interest rates to come down by 0.5-0.75% over the coming year, mortgage rates and longer-term rates might stay elevated as fiscal concerns weigh on the long end of the yield curve
- This could be an environment that keeps construction restricted and rewards patient capital investing in supply-constrained markets.
- JP Morgan Market Insights – 2026 Year-Ahead Investment Outlook
3. Construction Lending by banks continues to decline
- Aided both by a rise in Private Debt lending and a lack of appetite from banks.
- For Hotels the market is now ~50% banks vs. non-banks.
- PGIM Real Estate Outlook 2026
4. Extended-stay hotel projects continue to be a significant component of the U.S. hotel construction pipeline
- At Q3 2025, extended-stay projects total 2,468 projects/250,754 rooms accounting for 40% of all projects and 34% of all rooms in the total pipeline.
- Lodging Econometrics, October 27th 2025
5. Conversions are popular!
- Brand conversion activity closed the quarter with 1,477 projects, or 148,035 rooms, up 18% by projects and 22% by rooms year over year.
- Combined, the total renovation and brand conversion pipeline in the U.S. stands at 2,043 projects, or 271,177 rooms, up 4% by projects and 3% by rooms year over year.
- Lodging Econometrics, October 27th 2025
Red Light – Green Light – Market Update!
Here is where we think the market is currently across different markets and use of proceeds.
The chart below shows the indicative LTV and Rate for the specific market
These are averages, which means there will definitely be outliers on each end. As always, LTV and rates are based on the project and sponsor!
About Bridge
We are the first fintech focused on Hospitality loans and partners with Hilton, AAHOA, Choice, Red Roof and others. We’ve closed and funded $500.0 million+ in loans in 2025 (Our 1st full year of Hotel Lending) and we only have one goal:
Simplifying access to competitive financing for your hotel loan.
Tools to Help You Get Funded
-
Five-click Pro Forma Generator – Link
- C-PACE Calculator – determine if your project is CPACE eligible and how much you can get – Link
- DSCR Calculator – does your deal cash flow – Link
- Free Offering Memo – Have we generated an Offering Memorandum for you yet? We’ve built an OM for over 150 other projects in the past 3 months- get one now Link
- Data Room – the cost of not having everything in one place is that lenders move on to the next deal – we’ve built a hospitality focused deal room
(Want to see it? Just reply to this email and I’ll give you a live demo)
Where will Bridge we be in December?
- 2025 Choice Extended Stay Strategic Franchisee Summit
Bridge Minibar Update
- Bridge holiday party is on the 11th, we’re going to need replenishments to get us through December.
Regards,
Rohit
Filed under
Written by
Rohit Mathur
Co-founded Bridge inside Citi and spun it out in 2023. Author of the Loan Market and Minibar Update, the leading newsletter on how hotel lending actually works.
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